Operation and Process Management

The Task:

First, you will need to obtain a time series as follows:

Download the file consumertrends2013q3volume.xls from the OP218 Assessment area on studentcentral

Identify the product or service allocated to you and locate this on the spreadsheet using the sheet name and four-letter column code provided. (A spreadsheet showing the dataset allocation is also on studentcentral).

Select and Copy the quarterly data from row 31 to row 91

Paste this into a new spreadsheet

You are then required to produce a spreadsheet which forecasts the consumer expenditure on the product or service for the next quarter (or next 4 quarters in the case of decomposition) using each of the following three methods:

A four-period moving average (10 marks).

Exponential smoothing with an optimal parameter determined by the Excel Solver (15 marks)

Decomposition with a trend line and seasonality (25 marks)

In each case, calculate the MAPE for the forecast method. Then submit your complete Excel spreadsheet to studentcentral. There is no written report (MARYAM AHMED is my name on the spread sheet)OP218_O_PM_Assignment_2_Question_1_2013-14-4 Dataset_allocation_for_O_PM_assignment_2_forecasting consumertrends2013q3volume-2 OP218_O_PM_Assignment_2_Question_1_2013-14 Dataset_allocation_for_O_PM_assignment_2_forecasting consumertrends2013q3volume-2